{
  "abstract": "Background and Aims As the global population ages, chronic postsurgical pain in older patients has become a mounting concern, yet predictive tools specific to this population remain underdeveloped. This multicentre, prospective cohort study aimed to identify risk factors for moderate-to-severe chronic postsurgical pain and develop predictive models to facilitate early clinical decision-making in older patients.Methods We enrolled patients aged 65 years and older who underwent non-cardiac and non-neurosurgical procedures from April 2020 to April 2022. Moderate-to-severe chronic postsurgical pain, the primary outcome, was defined as a numeric rating scale score ≥ 4 three months post-surgery. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative prediction models were constructed using logistic regression analysis and externally validated.Results A total of 3,580 cases were analysed, with a 15.2% incidence of moderate-to-severe chronic postsurgical pain. Significant predictors included female sex, lack of preoperative pain education, surgery for malignant tumours, specific surgical specialties, open surgical technique, surgery duration ≥ 120 min, worst pain score within 1–7 days post-surgery, and pain-related anxiety during the same timeframe. The models demonstrated areas under the curve of 0.707, 0.721, and 0.739 in the training set and improved performance in the validation set.Abstract OP26 Figure 1Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the predictive models. (A) ROC curves for the preoperative (1), intraoperative (2), and postoperative (3) models in the training set; (B) External validation of the preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative models, respectively. ROC, the receiver operating characteristic; AUC, the area under the curveConclusions The prediction models, characterised by good calibration and relatively high accuracy and specificity, provide a valuable tool for identifying elderly patients at high risk of moderate-to-severe chronic postsurgical pain. These findings offer a foundation for multidisciplinary risk assessment and tailored clinical decision-making by anaesthesiologists and surgical teams.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Chinese PLA General Hospital Anesthesiology Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yanhong Liu"
    }
  ],
  "title": "OP26 Development and validation of prediction models for moderate-to-severe chronic postsurgical pain in older patients: a multicentre prospective cohort study",
  "uid": "54f25093-5d89-5ca0-984d-2b2231d592db"
}