{
  "abstract": "Background There are limited prediction models of long-term mortality for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Against this background, we aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for long-term mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing PCI.Methods A total of 23 086 patients from a STEMI network were included in the derivation cohort. Using time-to-event regression analysis, predictors of long-term mortality were identified and used to develop a score ranging from 0 to 206 points, with a score directly proportional to the probability of mortality. The predictive performance of this score was then validated in patients from the EXAMINATION-EXTEND study (n=1498) and Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry (n=1112). An outcome-based cut-point optimisation analysis was performed to determine the best cut-off value in the derivation and validation cohorts.Results The prediction model for long-term mortality in STEMI (PREDICT-STEMI) score comprised seven variables: age, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, previous ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack, haemodynamic status, three-vessel disease and mechanical circulatory support. The score showed a Concordance index for long-term mortality of 0.81 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.81) in the derivation and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.84) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.87) in the validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal prediction model cut-off was 60 points; compared with those with a low score, patients with a high score had a sixfold increased risk of long-term mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts.Conclusions The PREDICT-STEMI score is a simple tool for predicting long-term mortality and facilitating early risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiolgy, University of Florida College of Medicine - Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Florida, USA"
      ],
      "name": "Luis Ortega-Paz"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiolgy, University of Florida College of Medicine - Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Florida, USA",
        "Division of Cardiology, Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Policlinico “G. Rodolico-San Marco”, University of Catania, Catania, Italy"
      ],
      "name": "Claudio Laudani"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Clínic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Salvatore Brugaletta"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Clínic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Pablo Vidal-Calés"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Coronary Care Unit, Cardiology Department, Bellvitge University Hospital, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Albert Ariza-Solé"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Cardiology, University Hospital Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Irene Buera"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Cardiology, Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, Girona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Mérida Cárdenas Manilla"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "University Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Xavier Carrillo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Interventional Cardiology, University School of Nursing of the Hospital of the Holy Cross and Saint Paul, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Marcelo Jimenez"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Joan XXIII University Hospital Tarragona, Tarragona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Jordi Guarinos"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Cardiology, Fundacio Assistencial de Mutua de Terrassa FPC, Terrassa, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Juan Francisco Muñoz Camacho"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Clínic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Oriol De Diego"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Cardiology Department, Hospital del Mar, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Helena Tizón-Marcos"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova, Lleida, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Carlos Tomás-Querol"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Coronary Care Unit, Cardiology Department, Bellvitge University Hospital, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Josep Gomez-Lara"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Interventional Cardiology, Alvaro Cunqueiro Hospital Cardiology Service, Vigo, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Victor Jimenez-Diaz"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Clinico Universitario San Carlos, Madrid, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Pilar Jiménez-Quevedo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Cardiology, Erasmus MC Thoraxcenter, Rotterdam, The Netherlands"
      ],
      "name": "Roberto Diletti"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "University Hospital of Alicante, Alicante, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Pascual Bordes"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy"
      ],
      "name": "Gianluca Campo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Interventional Cardiology Unit, Heart Disease Institute, Bellvitge University Hospital, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Joan Antoni Gomez-Hospital"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiology, Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Policlinico “G. Rodolico-San Marco”, University of Catania, Catania, Italy"
      ],
      "name": "Antonio Greco"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiology, Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Policlinico “G. Rodolico-San Marco”, University of Catania, Catania, Italy"
      ],
      "name": "Marco Spagnolo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiology, Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Policlinico “G. Rodolico-San Marco”, University of Catania, Catania, Italy"
      ],
      "name": "Davide Capodanno"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Division of Cardiolgy, University of Florida College of Medicine - Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Florida, USA"
      ],
      "name": "Dominick Angiolillo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Hospital Clínic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain"
      ],
      "name": "Manel Sabate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Derivation and validation of a prediction model for long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the PREDICT-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction score",
  "uid": "b8847d09-6f17-5a34-8261-f0592e7ce3fa"
}