{
  "abstract": "Background Endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) combining endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is the standard of care for dysplastic Barrett’s oesophagus (BE). While short-term efficacy is well-established, the long-term durability of EET and the temporal dynamics of recurrence remain incompletely characterised. The objective was to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis quantifying long-term recurrence rates after EET for dysplastic BE, examining incidence rates per 100 person-years for primary outcomes (all neoplasia, significant neoplasia) and secondary outcomes (advanced cancer, intestinal metaplasia recurrence), and to characterise early versus late recurrence dynamics across time intervals up to 10 years post-EET.Methods We included 15 studies (n=4,344 patients) with available time-to-event or aggregate outcome data following successful EET. Random-effects meta-analysis using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation was performed. Incidence rates per 100 person-years were computed with exact Poisson confidence intervals. Time-period analysis examined interval-specific hazard rates across 0–1, 1–2, 2–5, and ≥5-year windows. Subgroup analyses, leave-one-out sensitivity analyses, and funnel plots were generated.Results The pooled incidence rate for all neoplasia recurrence was 1.70 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.17–2.33; I 2=78.2%; k=12) (IDDF2026-ABS-0361 Figure 1. Forest plot all neoplasia recurrence). For significant neoplasia (HGD/EAC), the pooled rate was 1.23 per 100 PY (95% CI: 0.71–1.88; I2=77.1%). Advanced cancer recurrence was rare at 0.13 per 100 PY (95% CI: 0.06–0.23; I2=29.8%). IM recurrence occurred at 5.35 per 100 PY (95% CI: 3.73–7.24) (IDDF2026-ABS-0361 Figure 2. Forest plot IM recurrence). Time-period analysis demonstrated the highest recurrence hazard rates in the first year, with declining rates thereafter, consistent with the hypothesis that recurrence risk attenuates over time rather than exhibiting a delayed surge.Conclusions EET demonstrates durable long-term outcomes with low rates of clinically significant neoplasia recurrence extending to 10 years. The recurrence pattern shows early predominance (0–2 years) with decreasing hazard rates over time, supporting the hypothesis that there is no late surge in neoplasia recurrence. Advanced cancer after EET remains exceptionally rare. These findings support the durability of EET and inform surveillance strategy planning.Abstract IDDF2026-ABS-0361 Figure 1Abstract IDDF2026-ABS-0361 Figure 2",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Sheffield Teaching Hospitals and NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Arkadeep Dhali"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Imperial College London, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Sung Pil Hong"
    }
  ],
  "title": "IDDF2026-ABS-0361 Long-term recurrence after endoscopic eradication therapy for dysplastic barrett’s oesophagus: a lineage-controlled meta-analysis assessing early and late recurrence dynamics",
  "uid": "ce8cc5ae-553b-5954-b8d4-d4680e0c97d0"
}