{
  "abstract": "Background Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is an aggressive malignancy with a poor prognosis. Despite reported declines in age-standardised rates, its absolute global burden appears to be rising. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global epidemiology of CCA from 1990 to 2023 and project its future burden through 2046.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CCA across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Age-standardized rates and absolute numbers were estimated. An age-period-cohort model analyzed temporal trends, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected burden to 2046.Results Between 1990 and 2023, the global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of CCA decreased from 2.9 to 2.5 per 100,000. However, the absolute number of new cases nearly doubled, increasing from 108,000 to 235,000. While the age-standardised mortality rate declined, absolute DALYs rose by 66.1% to 3.90 million. Significant geographical and socio-economic disparities were observed: ASIR declined in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions but increased in low-SDI regions. Chile, South Korea, and Thailand formed a persistent ‘high-incidence belt.’ Incidence peaked and showed a continuing upward trend only in the population aged ≥85 years. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and ageing as the primary drivers behind the increasing case numbers. Projections indicate that the annual number of new global CCA cases will reach 402,000 by 2046, marking a 71.1% increase from 2023.Conclusions Despite modest declines in age-standardised rates, the absolute global burden of CCA has increased substantially and is projected to rise further, driven predominantly by demographic shifts. The widening inequalities across regions underscore the urgent need for enhanced targeted prevention and early detection strategies, particularly in high-risk regions and ageing populations.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Cancer Hospital, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yunqi Hua"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Medical College, China"
      ],
      "name": "Fengqi Liu"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Medical College, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yubo Liu"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Cancer Hospital, China"
      ],
      "name": "Shuang Lv"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Cancer Hospital, China"
      ],
      "name": "Lina Wang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Cancer Hospital, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yaqin Tan"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Baotou Cancer Hospital, China"
      ],
      "name": "Qing Chang"
    }
  ],
  "title": "IDDF2026-ABS-0393 Global burden of cholangiocarcinoma: epidemiological trends and projections to 2046 from the global burden of disease study 2023",
  "uid": "9821d163-a135-5365-b308-d1e9318a8786"
}