{
  "abstract": "Background Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the main diagnostic and therapeutic method to treat common bile duct (CBD) stones. However, residual stones still existed despite negative cholangiography results. The aim of this study was to establish a novel risk scoring model for predicting stone residue.Methods Data on choledocholithiasis patients who underwent ERCP and following cholangioscopy with negative cholangiography in our center were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Eligible patients were randomly categorized into the training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Independent predictors of stone residue in the derivation cohort were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis and used to develop a risk score. We validated the score model in the validation cohort ( IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 1).Results A total of 524 cases were enrolled, and cholangiography failed to detect residual bile duct stones in 8.21% (43/524) of cases. The risk score comprised age ≥60 years (3 point), diameter of bile duct ≥1.2cm (4 points), periampullary duodenal diverticulum (5 point) and ALP ≥160 U/L (4 points). Areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for the score model were comparable (training [0.881], validation [0.898]) ( IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 2). The probability of stone residue in low risk (score = 0-5), intermediate risk (score = 7-11), and high risk (score = 12-16) categories were 0.4%, 19.7%, and 50.0% in the training set; 1.0%, 17.8% and 57.1% in the validation set.Conclusions This clinical score model accurately predicts the probability of stone residue after a negative ERCP cholangiography and assists clinicians in determining the individual risk of stone residue, which will guide subsequent treatments ( IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 3).Abstract IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 1Abstract IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 2Abstract IDDF2026-ABS-0474 Figure 3",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"
      ],
      "name": "Xucheng Huo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"
      ],
      "name": "Baohui Song"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"
      ],
      "name": "Zhipeng QI"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"
      ],
      "name": "Mingyan Cai"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yunshi Zhong"
    }
  ],
  "title": "IDDF2026-ABS-0474 A novel risk scoring model for predicting residual stones with negative cholangiography post-ERCP: a retrospective cohort study",
  "uid": "24a135f1-676f-53c7-b1ae-d53dc9441202"
}