{
  "abstract": "Background Risk stratification is vital in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) to guide management decisions. Several risk scores to predict adverse outcomes of UGIB have been developed, however, real-world comparisons across diverse patient outcomes are limited. We aimed to validate and compare the discriminatory performance of five established UGIB risk scores for inpatient mortality, including subgroup analysis for variceal and non-variceal bleeding aetiologies.Methods We retrospectively analysed 1,003 patients who received inpatient oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) on admission between January 2025 and August 2023 at a tertiary centre.Each patient’s ABC, CHAMPS, MAP(ASH), Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS), and Japanese scores were calculated. The outcome measured was 30-day inpatient mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to assess each score’s discriminative ability. Further subgroup analyses were performed depending on the aetiology of UGIB (variceal vs non-variceal).Results Between the five analysed scores, the ABC score (AUC: 0.817) had the highest overall prediction ability for 30-day inpatient mortality, followed by CHAMPS (AUC: 0.791) and MAP(ASH) (AUC: 0.774). GBS and the Japanese scores demonstrated moderate to poor accuracy (AUC: 0.713 and 0.614, respectively). A similar pattern was displayed for variceal UGIB subgroup, with the ABC score being the best performing (AUC: 0.826), followed by CHAMPS (AUC: 0.774). MAP(ASH), GBS, and the Japanese score had poor predictive values (AUCs: 0.694, 0.660, and 0.540, respectively).ABC, CHAMPs, and MAP(ASH) demonstrated strong predictive accuracy in the non-variceal UGIB subgroup, with AUCs: 0.818, 0.792, and 0.787, respectively. Whilst GBS (AUC = 0.728) and the Japanese score (AUC = 0.627) had less reliability.Conclusion In this real-world UK cohort, the ABC score outperformed four other established scoring systems in predicting inpatient mortality in UGIB. Thus, our findings may indicate ABC score to be the most dependable score for early risk assessment in acute UGIB patients, independent of bleeding aetiology, followed by CHAMPS and MAP(ASH).",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Mohamed Jalloh"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom",
        "School of Medicine, Keele University, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Balamrit-Singh Sokhal"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Maryam Javed"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Humberto Gomez"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Jessica Lightfoot"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Royal Stoke University Hospital, University Hospitals North Midlands, Stoke-On-Trent, United Kingdom"
      ],
      "name": "Farhan Gohar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "FP3 Validation and comparative accuracy of five risk scores for predicting inpatient mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding",
  "uid": "971ebfbb-daf4-514c-9030-7953921540ed"
}