{
  "abstract": "Objective To develop a clinically accessible corneal graft survival calculator that present published survival data as personalised, time-dependent predictions.Background Corneal graft survival data, largely derived from registries and cohort studies, are typically presented within academic publications making them impractical for routine clinical use. Personal graft outcome data are also supplied to UK surgeons from NHSBT, but are restricted to first grafts and the three commonest primary diagnoses only. We have developed a corneal graft survival calculator (https://beta.moorfieldscg.com/), including more complex real-world ocular comorbidity and regrafts, bringing published data into an interactive clinical tool.Methods Separate profiles were defined for indication, graft type and recipient risk profile including regraft number. Year-specific survival probabilities up to 10 years were extracted from registry datasets and peer-reviewed studies, with constrained interpolation applied where intermediate timepoints were unavailable. The calculator outputs personalised survival curves, rather than single hazard ratios, to convey how absolute survival probabilities evolve over time.Results The calculator confirms marked divergence in long-term graft survival between profiles despite similar early outcomes. Ten-year predicted survival exceeds 85–90% for low-risk DALK and DMEK indications but falls below 40% for high-risk PK scenarios, such as multiple regrafts. Notably, grafts in eyes with glaucoma shunts demonstrate rapid attrition, with survival falling to approximately 15–20% by 10 years.Conclusion Generic consent statistics frequently misrepresent individual risk, particularly for complex eyes. This unified calculator integrates diverse data sources to provide surgeons with specific, evidence-based time-dependent prognostic profiles, facilitating more accurate informed consent and expectation management.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Moorfields Eye Hospital, London, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Daniel Gore"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Stoke Mandeville Hospital, Aylesbury, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Jeremy Hoffman"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Moorfields Eye Hospital, London, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Shafi Balal"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "St James’s Hospital, Leeds, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Arthur Okonkwo"
    }
  ],
  "title": "OP16 A time-dependent corneal graft survival calculator for personalised risk prediction",
  "uid": "c90ebf45-6e46-51f4-9568-17e856bc0156"
}