{
  "abstract": "This study estimates the prevalence of myopia in the UK and Ireland, forecasts trends through 2050, and evaluates its impact by age group, progression rates, risk of pathological myopia and associated visual impairment (VI).A systematic review identified studies in the UK and Ireland reporting on myopia prevalence (n=15), progression (n=4), pathological changes (n=1). Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent refraction ≤-0.50 D, and high myopia as ≤ -6.00 D. Linear regression analysis (prevalence plotted against publication year) was used for the prediction model. Risk estimates from comparable populations were used to predict the likelihood of developing myopia-related pathologies and associated VI.Myopia prevalence is 2.8% in ages 5 to <9, 9.3% in 9 to <12, 15.9% in 12 to <15, 21.5% in 15 to ≤20 and 31.6% in >20-year-olds. Myopia prevalence is projected to increase linearly by 6.9% every decade (0.7% every year) in 5 to ≤20-year-olds and by 4.0% every decade (0.4% every year) in >20-year-olds, with expected prevalence of 40.5% and 47.6% (respectively) by 2050. Rate of myopia progression in ≤20 years was -0.41 D/year and 0.37 mm/year. The projected number of individuals aged ≥40 developing myopia-related pathologies and VI is expected to increase by 73.1% and 72.4%, respectively, between 2022 and 2052, with similar increases observed in low and high myopia groups.Estimates of myopia are projected to rise significantly, increasing the risk of myopia-related complications and VI, even among low myopes. Active eye care interventions focused on preventing the onset and slowing its progression are needed.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Optometry and Vision Science Research Group, School of Optometry, Aston University, Birmingham, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Daisy Kynman-Sprinks"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Optometry and Vision Science Research Group, School of Optometry, Aston University, Birmingham, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Sayantan Biswas"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Optometry and Vision Science Research Group, School of Optometry, Aston University, Birmingham, UK"
      ],
      "name": "Nicola S Logan"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Optometry and Vision Science Research Group, School of Optometry, Aston University, Birmingham, UK"
      ],
      "name": "James S Wolffsohn"
    }
  ],
  "title": "125959 Future projections of myopia in the UK and Ireland: trends in prevalence, progression, and pathology through 2050",
  "uid": "af1105f6-ad67-582e-8c91-b270fc86009a"
}