{
  "abstract": "Objectives Age-standardised incidence rates of myocarditis have been widely reported; this metric primarily provides a cross-sectional view of risk based on a fixed standard population and does not capture the effects of population ageing. Lifetime risk represents the probability of developing myocarditis over an individual’s lifespan and incorporates both demographic ageing and competing mortality, thereby offering a complementary perspective that reflects the burden experienced in real-world populations. This study aimed to estimate the global lifetime risk of myocarditis.Design This was a systematic analysis using publicly available aggregated data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Setting The study included 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.Participants We used deidentified data from the general population to measure the lifetime risk of developing myocarditis.Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome was the estimated lifetime risk of developing myocarditis at the global, regional and national levels. Secondary outcomes included long-term trends in lifetime risk using the average annual percentage change (AAPC), variation in lifetime risk by age and sex, differences across Sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels assessed with concentration indices, and future risk estimated using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.Results The global lifetime risk of developing myocarditis increased from 1.33% (95% CI 1.32% to 1.33%) in 1990 to 1.50% (95% CI 1.49% to 1.50%) in 2021 (AAPC: 0.388%, 95% CI 0.314% to 0.462%). High and high-middle SDI countries had the greatest risks. In 2021, risk was higher in males (1.59%, 95% CI 1.59% to 1.60%) than in females (1.40%, 95% CI 1.39% to 1.40%). People over 40 years, especially older women, had higher lifetime risks. Forecasts based on the ARIMA model suggest that the risk will continue to rise through 2050.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the global lifetime risk of developing myocarditis has shown an upward trend. It is crucial to enhance early detection and diagnostic capabilities in primary care settings.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Beijing Hospital, National Centre of Gerontology, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Chen Ji"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Ministry of Education, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yuhao Li"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China",
        "Peking Union Medical College Graduate School, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yuhao Wan"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Zhikai Yang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China",
        "Peking Union Medical College Graduate School, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Min Zeng"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Peking Union Medical College Graduate School, Beijing, China",
        "The Key Laboratory of Geriatrics, Beijing Institute of Geriatrics, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology of National Health Commission, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Ting Wang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China",
        "Peking Union Medical College Graduate School, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Wenzheng Li"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Junpeng Liu"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yingying Li"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Ministry of Education, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China",
        "Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Shengfeng Wang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Cardiology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Hua Wang"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Global lifetime risk of developing myocarditis, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021",
  "uid": "6e751d45-7622-51e7-a761-e3fb8f5fa24b"
}