{
  "abstract": "Introduction To quantify the impact of tropical cyclones on dengue transmission dynamics and related disease burden by integrating field entomology with dynamic modelling in Guangzhou, China.Methods Guangzhou was selected as the study site considering that it is China’s most dengue-endemic coastal megacity with frequent tropical cyclones and the country’s largest recorded dengue outbreak in 2014. Mark–release–recapture experiments with laboratory simulations were performed in 2024 to assess the flight distance, reproduction and survival of Aedes albopictus under cyclone and baseline conditions to estimate human–mosquito contact rates. These data informed a dynamic susceptible–incubation–infected–recovered model simulating the 2014 dengue epidemic during Typhoons Rammasun and Kalmaegi. We estimated excess cases and economic losses against counterfactual baselines and projected the impact of enhanced vector control.Results During cyclones, Aedes albopictus maximum flight distance increased by 63.0% and human–mosquito contact rate by 30.1%. Estimated R 0 increased from 1.10 (baseline) to 1.43 (Rammasun) and 1.29 (Kalmaegi). The estimated excess burden reached 217 excess cases (US$76 400) for Rammasun and 5131 cases (US$1.93 million) for Kalmaegi. Enhanced vector control during Kalmaegi was projected to avert 59 360 additional cases (US$20.91 million).Conclusions Tropical cyclones amplify dengue transmission by expanding mosquito dispersal and intensifying human–vector contact. Early vector control, guided by warnings, substantially reduces cases and costs.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Shandong University, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yu Yan"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Mengjie Geng"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yuwen Zhong"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Hui Deng"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Shengjun Hu"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yating Chen"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Wenting Guo"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China"
      ],
      "name": "Yan Li"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Shandong University, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Department of Academic Research, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China"
      ],
      "name": "Haitao Wang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Huafeng meteorological media Group, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Taiyuan Zhang"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China"
      ],
      "name": "Wentao Hu"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Shandong University, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Faculty of Health, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"
      ],
      "name": "Qi Zhao"
    },
    {
      "affiliations": [
        "Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Shandong University, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong, China",
        "Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Monitoring, Early Warning, Prevention and Control for Infectious Diseases, Jinan, China"
      ],
      "name": "Wei Ma"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The role of tropical cyclones in accelerating dengue transmission: insights from field experiments and dynamical modelling",
  "uid": "96efd294-0544-5089-9aea-f444af0b9690"
}